ommotto
male - 28 years
Blog 38
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IS HILLARY PREPARING TO RUN IN 2012?
Does Hillary Clinton really believe she can overtake Barack Obama among elected delegates? No way. The math is dead against her and she’s a realist. Even after Pennsylvania, Obama still leads by more than 140 in elected delegates. They’ll likely break even in Indiana and he’ll win North Carolina where one third of the vote is African-American. After that? If she wins Kentucky, West Virginia, and Puerto Rico by 15 points and they break about even in Guam, North Dakota, Montana, and Oregon, she’ll still trail him by at least 130 votes among elected delegates.
Does she believe she can persuade super delegates to vote for her? Again, probably not. Obama has steadily eroded her edge among super delegates and now they are almost tied among committed super delegates. And the prevailing sentiment among those that remain is not to overturn the will of the voters.
So why is Hillary still running so hard? Why is she especially focused on pushing up Obama’s negatives?
Until the last vote is counted on June 3rd, we can chalk up her persistence to determination, courage and sheer obstinacy. But if she persists in her candidacy after the last primary, we must begin to consider whether she has an ulterior motive.
Does Hillary want to beat up Obama so that he can’t win the general election in November, assuring McCain of the presidency so that she can have a clear field to run again in 2012? Obviously, if Obama beats McCain, Hillary is out of the picture until 2016, by which time, at 69 years old, she might be too old to run. But if McCain wins, she would have to be considered the presumptive front runner for the nomination, a status which she might parlay into a nomination more successfully than she has been able to do this year.
Every day that she stays in the race and punches Barack Obama, she must realize that she is decreasing his chances of getting elected in November. Each time that she waves the bloody shirt and says that only she is strong enough to fight the war on terror, she obviously raises doubts about Obama’s strength and leadership. Every time she criticizes him for not switching pastors or for saying downscale white voters are bitter, she raises issues that are very destructive to Obama should he win the nomination.
When does fighting for the nomination in 2008 end and seeking to sabotoge Obama’s chances in November to keep her options alive for 2012 begin? Doubts about Hillary’s motivation are going to keep on growing with each inconclusive primary. After she loses North Carolina and fails to carry Indiana by any significant margin (North Carolina has twice as many delegates as Indiana), people will begin to wonder out loud about why she is staying in the race. And if she remains obdurate after the last votes are cast on June 3rd, it will become an increasingly accepted presumption that she is running a campaign of sabotage against Obama.
There is a way to run without waging a scorched earth campaign. Mike Huckabee continued to fight for the Republican nomination until McCain reached the magic number to clench the battle and did not attack McCain. He waged a positive campaign and exercised his right to stay in the contest as long as it was undecided without hurting the party’s chances in November. Obviously, Huckabee could have attacked McCain and drawn more votes for his candidacy, but, in the interests of party victory, he chose not to do so.
Why isn’t Hillary making the same choice?
In 2004, it is pretty obvious that Hillary did nothing to help John Kerry beyond giving a speech at the convention and waging a token campaign on his behalf. Bill did even less. Their goal was obvious: they wanted Kerry to lose to Bush so that Hillary could run in 2008. Is she playing the same game now? Only time will tell. -
Kenya's cabinet 'soaks up 80pc of the budget
Kenya's expanded new government will spend 80 per cent of the entire national budget on luxury vehicles, inflated salaries for ministers and general running costs, a local anti-corruption group claimed on Wednesday.
Of Kenya's annual budget of £5.4 billion, more than £4.3 billion will go on 93 ministers and their government's general running costs. Only £1.3 billion will be left for roads, schools and hospitals for Kenya's 38 million people.
President Mwai Kibaki's administration now boasts 43 ministries - up from 34 - in a deal with the Orange Democratic Movement, led by Raila Odinga, following the bitterly disputed election.
"It appears as if the government has ceased to have a development function and exists only to tax Kenyans and spend their money on recurring costs," said Mwalimu Mati, the director of the Mars Group, an anti-corruption body.
Of the 222 MPs, almost half now have government jobs. Cabinet members benefit from annual salaries exceeding £83,000 and numerous perks, including official cars and "entertainment" allowances of £600 per month.
Almost half of all Kenyans survive on less than 50p a day. -
By-Elections: Why is the ECK Silent?
Revealed: Esther Passaris to Vie in Embakasi
It is emerging that scores of politicians are chasing the ODM party ticket for the forthcoming by elections, with some constituencies like Emuhaya, Embakasi, Ainamoi, Kamukunji attracting up to 50 aspirants. Other constituencies due for by-elections are Wajir North and Kilgoris. All signs are that the ODM hierarchy is taking the forthcoming by elections very seriously, an indication that the party has its eyes set on controlling the legislative agenda as well as positioning itself for the next general elections which could come earlier than the year 2012.
Curiously though, despite the National Assembly Speaker having issued gazette notices earlier this month declaring Emuhaya, Embakasi and Ainanoi seats vacant, the disgraced Electoral Commission of Kenya has not announced the time-table for the by-elections, something it is mandated to do within fourteen days of such gazettements. Similarly, the country remains in the dark about the other three constituencies which never got MPs following the disputed general elections in December. This is a great injustice to those citizens who lack representation in parliament.
Even as we wait for ECK to announce the by-elections timetable, for the next six months, the ECK itself will be placed under the microscope when the Independent Review Commission probing the 2007 elections will get down to investigating the disputed December 2007 election results including the role played by the ECK, political parties, the media, faith based organizations and the civil society. The ECK has already contracted a lawyer as it is due to appear as a witness(es) at the commission. But does this mean that unrepresented constituencies have to wait until the ECK is sorted out?
Currently only existing on paper, Kibaki’s PNU and Kalonzo’s ODM-K which were leading political parties only a few months ago have turned out were only created to be used as miserable campaign vehicles with no intentions of ever fulfilling their glossy party manifestos. On the other hand, the ODM has kept its secretariat active with permanent staff and the party Secretary General, Ayang Nyongo busy networking in local and overseas travels. In contrast, its rivals are now a pale shadow of ‘vibrant’ parties they once professed to be having witnessed bitter fall-outs and complete shut-down of their own campaign secretariats. Whatever happened to the once all powerful Maanzos, Ojiambos, Kituyis and Tujus?
In Embakasi constituency, long wrongly assumed to be hostile grounds to ODM candidates, this blogger can authoritatively reveal, the ODM front runner for the Embakasi seat is none other than Esther Muthoni Passaris - the founder of Adopt-A-Light. With her pentagon friends behind her, it looks likely that she will bag the ODM ticket.
After she was deliberately omitted under dubious grounds as an ODM nominated councilor by the then Local Government Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Passaris is now set to make a debut in parliamentary politics and not civic politics that she was unfairly denied in the first place. Uhuru Kenyatta and his well known godfathers will have to go back to the drawing board. Observers doubt if the PNU/ODM-K coalition can come up with a more acceptable candidate to face and beat Passaris in an isolated by-election with the ODM brigade behind her. Not only has Passaris been a frequent visitor at the Pentagon House, she hardly misses at any social function organized by ODM Captain Raila Odinga. Last Thursday, the flamboyant Passaris was present at the Prime Minister’s dinner at hotel Inter-Continental Nairobi in a function attended by who-is-who in Kenya’s political and business circles.
Last year ODM collected billions of shillings in nomination fees, donations and sponsorship. The party was charging Kshs. 100,000/- for its parliamentary ticket, plus 20,000/- in party membership cards. It was reported that Passaris was among donors who made hefty donations into the ODM campaign kitty and provided millions of shillings worth of advertising space to the party. Not bad for someone who was originally a Kibaki supporter. It looks like the ODM strategy in Embakasi is to divide the massive GEMA vote while consolidating the youth and women’s vote in this large constituency. -
One in 25 fathers raise other mens children. Research......
One in 25 fathers raise other mens children. Research.......
its very sad especially in a many African countries kenya being one of them. How do u come to content with the idea that the children u have been raising up, doing all the sorts of things for them and even bragging in social places..ati my son my son are not yours. They are another man's children....lol..! shiet..!:mad: :mad: up to one in 25 dads could unknowingly be raising another man's child, uk health researchers estimate.
Increasing use of genetic testing for medical and legal reasons means more couples are discovering the biological proof of who fathered the child. The liverpool john moores university team reached its estimate based on research findings published between 1950 and 2004. The study appears in the journal of epidemiology and community health. Biological father professor mark bellis and his team said that the implications of so-called paternal discrepancy were huge and largely ignored, even though the incidence was increasing. In the us, the number of paternity tests increased from 142,000 in 1991 to 310,490 in 2001.
Demand for testing has grown by a factor of 10 in the last decade in the uk, according to university diagnostics, teddington. The current level in the uk is somewhere between 8,900 and 20,000 tests per year. About 5,000 of these tests are instigated at the demand of the child support agency to resolve who should be paying child maintenance. Others are done to investigate inherited health disorders and others for social reasons.
The liverpool team found that rates of cases where a father was not the biological father of his child ranged from 1% in some studies to as much as 30%. Experts have generally agreed that the rate is below 10%, with a 4% rate meaning that about one in 25 could be affected. However, increasing use of genetic testing is likely to boost the rates of paternal discrepancy, say the authors. Important consequences professor bellis said the consequences of a man finding out that he is not the biological father of a child could be devastating.
It can lead to relationship breakdown, mental health problems for both partners and even domestic violence, while the children involved can experience low self-esteem and anxiety. He said services and support should be available to minimise such negative consequences. In an ideal world, everyone should have counselling rebecca webster, a counsellor for private paternity testing company dna bioscience however, even basic counselling is not always provided - some individuals order and receive test results by email or over a web site, he said. "vital information is being delivered to people without very much thought about how it is going to affect them," he said.
Counselling rebecca webster, a counsellor for private paternity testing company dna bioscience, who speaks to about 500 men each month about such decisions, said: "we will raise the issue about whether they have thought about the consequences both for them and all those involved. "very often they are quite distressed and they want someone to talk to. "by the time they get the results a lot of people have prepared themselves. But it's a very emotional process, even if the result is the one they wanted. "in an ideal world, everyone should have counselling and it should be available on the nhs.
Unfortunately, it's not." adrienne burgess of fathers direct called for a code of practice to ensure companies providing paternity tests also offer counselling. The nspcc said fathers who find out they have been raising another man's child should remember that however angry they feel, they should not take this out on the child in any way. "the child will still regard the parent as their father. Rejection could be a devastating double blow for the child, " said a spokeswoman. -
Kenya Is Back On Edge
Kenya was recently in the news for an unprecedented level of political and ethnic violence that followed the bungled December 27th 2007 presidential election. The country is back on a precipice.
The result of the presidential election was hotly contested, with the opposition ODM insisting it was rigged in favor of the incumbent, Mwai Kibaki. All observers indeed agreed that the voting and vote counting process was peaceful above par. But they also unanimously agreed that the tallying of especially the presidential result was heavily flawed.
ODM won 99 parliamentary seats, against Kibaki's PNU 43. The ODM's presidential candidate, Raila Odinga, won the popular vote in 6 out of eight provinces, including the capital, Nairobi, whereas Kibaki won in only two provinces, predominantly inhabited by his tribe, the Kikuyu.
The violence that followed the declaration of Kibaki as the winner is unprecedented in Kenyan independence history. Close to 1500 people were killed, and about 500,000 displaced from their homes and farms. This violence only ended after an internationally brokered peace deal seemingly assured Kenyans that there would be real power sharing between the two leaders. That is the message Kenyans got from the Kofi Annan led committee of eminent persons. Parliament even went ahead to enact a law and requisite constitutional amendments that would make such power sharing legal.
But the Kibaki administration seemingly wants to implement that accord without really sharing power with the Raila led ODM. ODM insists on equal sharing of the cabinet positions, as well as portfolio balance, which in fact is the true deal signed by the two. Kibaki and his henchmen, led by the Head of Civil Service and Cabinet Secretary, one Francis Muthaura, want nothing of that.
Some of his ministers have also reportedly refused to give up some of the key ministries, e.g. Local Government ministry, that is being demanded by ODM. They won't step down, and Kibaki is reluctant to fire them. That is the reason tension is high and rising, barely two months after the violence of January 2008 stopped.
Kenya is on edge once again. And it is the usual suspects ruining the country's already threadbare social fabric. Something drastic has to be done to knock sense into these people's heads. -
Kenya: End Cabinet Stalemate, Says Envoy
The Rwandese ambassador to Kenya has called for a quick resolution of the Cabinet stalemate.
"Kenya can solve this problem. What happened should never be allowed again," Mr George Kayonga said.
Speaking when announcing the 14th commemoration of the Rwanda genocide to be marked on Wednesday, Kayonga expressed concern over loss of life in post-election violence.
"We commemorate for the 14th time the Rwanda genocide today by striving to eradicate its ideology, caring for survivors and promoting progress and development," Kayonga said.
The envoy said the loss of life was not comparable to the economic loss.
He told the leaders to be cautious in the way they handle the Cabinet stalemate. -
Does PNU vs ODM mean SAFARICOM vs CELTEL?
The IPO aside, what is more worrying is a scenario where the mobile telephone services themselves go the blue (PNU) and orange (ODM) way.
If Kenyan politics are anything to go by, and speaking strictly of the telecommunications industry, hitherto blue political areas could go green(SAFARICOM). And orange areas could go red (CELTEL) in defiance.
Kenya has been painted oranges and bananas in the past. After the blue and orange elections fiasco, you can be sure every national debate is likely to take a tribal angle and Safaricom is no exception. Is Kenya now about to be painted green and red?
Why can't we be like other countries in the world which are less tribal, eg our close brothers in Tanzania? I don't have any problem with anyone boycotting Safaricom IPO as long as it's their own decision and not whipped up hysteria from politicians or the other way round, buying because your MP said its now ok to buy.
What's the point of destroying something so special we all helped build? Politicians should just condemn themselves for failing to unmask the ghosts of Mobitelea. Surely, what is so hard for KIBAKI and RAILA (grand coalition government) to tell Kenyans that MOI and the boys (BIWOTT etc) are the owners of Mobitelea....and that the 5% share was actually a kick back for bringing Vodafone UK into the game??????? -
Revealed: Wrangles Inside the ODM Camp
Tempers flared yesterday even as the ODM group held its meeting behind closed doors to cut out a response message to what was viewed as a slap in the face by Amb. Muthaura's announcement. It has been revealed that many "junior" MPs are secretly displeased with what they consider to be a falling away situation. These MPs feelt that they have been ignored while the rank and file keep on getting the best of the deal.
Chief amongst the complaints that took center stage is the fact that Sec. General, Prof. Anyang' Nyong'o, MP for Kisumu Rural, seems to be hogging the microphone and the limelight always insisting on reading the press conference. "Why should he be the only one reading? Some of us are learned as well, let us share this cake equally" Prof. Olweny, MP for Muhoroni questioned even as others nodded their heads in agreement. Seeing that this could lead to a disturbance of sorts, Raila moved in fast to quell the storm and managed to broker a deal where Dr. Anangwe, from the Luhya community, would go ahead to read the statement, thus killing the already growing perception among MPs that only elite Luo MPs were enjoying power.
After solving that issue, MPs moved on to deal with the Amb. Muthaura announcement. Raila was very silent as he let others talk. MPs from the Rift Valley area were very pointed in their denounciation of the deal. Many felt that their community would be served a raw deal, even after bringing in the Lion's share of the votes for ODM. "We know the Captain is tied to his promise of making the deputy captain his vice president [alluding to Hon. Musalia Mudavadi] but we feel that Ruto should take over the deputy premiership since he delivered" said nominated MP Musa Sirma. It was then that MPs allied to Raila, especially his older brother, moved in to forcefully say that rules are rules and ODM should be respected by Kenyans for following them.
It was evident that a growing clique of MPs is growing resentful over this whole power sharing deal saying that it is going to benefit only a few of them. Kaddu Chairman, Hon. Cyrus Jirongo was adamant that the positioning of Hon. Mudavadi as the deputy prime minister should not make it impossible for western MPs like himself to lose out on ministerial appointments, seeing that he steered his party into a coalition with ODM.
Matters came to a head when nominated MP and member of the pentagon Norman Nyaga tried to argue that MPs should be patient and all would well. He was shouted down and booed while being reminded that he was not even able to deliver Gachoka while he well knew he was a pentagon!. It was then that Raila moved in once again to tell MPs that they were in the deal to stay. He said that ODM is made of honorable people and that they should be proud of that "nilisema sisi ni chama ya wangwana. Hebu tusiharibu hio maneno. The whole world is watching us, and our fellow kenyans are waiting for us to deliver. This is unstoppable, and those who feel different should know that this cannot be stopped!" the leader thundered!
It was then that the meeting was summarily brought to a stop. Efforts by Starehe MP Hon. Margaret Wanjiru to end the meeting with a word of prayer were thrawted as Hon. Ruto and others signaled that they were getting impatient and wanted to leave at once. "Tutaomba nyumbani" Kosgey said as they made for the door. -
AGREEMENT ON THE PRINCIPLES OF PARTNERSHIP OF THE COALITION
ACTING TOGETHER FOR KENYA
AGREEMENT ON THE PRINCIPLES OF PARTNERSHIP OF THE COALITION GOVERNMENT
Preamble:
The crisis triggered by the 2007 disputed presidential elections has brought to the surface deep-seated and long-standing divisions within Kenyan society. If left unaddressed, these divisions threaten the very existence of Kenya as a unified country. The Kenyan people are now looking to their leaders to ensure that their country will not be lost.
Given the current situation, neither side can realistically govern the country without the other. There must be real power-sharing to move the country forward and begin the healing and reconciliation process.
With this agreement, we are stepping forwarding together, as political leaders, to overcome the current crisis and to set the country on a new path. As partners in a coalition government, we commit ourselves to work together in good faith as true partners, through constant consultation and willingness to compromise.
This agreement is designed to create an environment conducive to such a partnership and to build mutual trust and confidence. It is not about creating positions that reward individuals. It seeks to enable Kenya’s political leaders to look beyond partisan considerations with a view to promoting the greater interests of the nation as a whole. It provides the means to implement a coherent and far-reaching reform agenda, to address the fundamental root causes of recurrent conflict, and to create a better, more secure, more prosperous Kenya for all.
To resolve the political crisis, and in the spirit of coalition and partnership, we have agreed to enact the National Accord and Reconciliation Act 2008, whose provisions have been agreed upon in their entirety by the parties hereto and a draft copy thereof is appended hereto.
Its key points are:
* There will be a Prime Minister of the Government of Kenya, with authority to coordinate and supervise the execution of the functions and affairs of the Government of Kenya.
* The Prime Minister will be an elected member of the National Assembly and the parliamentary leader of the largest party in the National Assembly, or of a coalition, if the largest party does not command a majority.
* Each member of the coalition shall nominate one person from the National Assembly to be appointed a Deputy Prime Minister.
* The Cabinet will consist of the President, the Vice-President, the Prime Minister, the two Deputy Prime Ministers and the other Ministers. The removal of any Minister of the coalition will be subject to consultation and concurrence in writing by the leaders.
* The Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Ministers can only be removed if the National Assembly passes a motion of no confidence with a majority vote.
* The composition of the coalition government will at all times take into account the principle of portfolio balance and will reflect their relative parliamentary strength.
* The coalition will be dissolved if the Tenth Parliament is dissolved; or if the parties agree in writing; or if one coalition partner withdraws from the coalition.
* The National Accord and Reconciliation Act shall be entrenched in the Constitution.
Having agreed on the critical issues above, we will now take this process to Parliament. It will be convened at the earliest moment to enact these agreements. This will be in the form of an Act of Parliament and the necessary amendment to the Constitution.
We believe by these steps we can together in the spirit of partnership bring peace and prosperity back to the people of Kenya who so richly deserve it.
Agreed this date 28 February 2008
________________________ ________________________
Hon. Raila Odinga H.E. President Mwai Kibaki
Orange Democratic Movement Government/Party of National Unity
Witnessed By:
_________________________ _________________________
H.E. Kofi A. Annan H.E. President Jakaya Kikwete
Chairman of the Panel President of the United Republic of
of Eminent African Personalities Tanzania
and Chairman of the African Union -
Kenyans 'forcibly recruited to fight'
A Kenyan (who wishes to remain anonymous) in the Rift Valley town of Naivasha describes how members of an outlawed sect - the Mungiki - are forcibly recruiting members of their Kikuyu ethnic group to kill non-Kikuyus - allied to the opposition. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7215107.stm
Law and order has broken down in the Rift Valley area since the disputed 27 December presidential election. Kenyan politics is polarised and because of this, when a community feels threatened, groupings or gangs arise in their defence.
It is really disgusting. People are being killed and burnt in their houses, even one person was buried alive... buried alive?
And other people are just watching.
There are gangs of Kikuyu coming knocking from door-to-door. But I really don't think they are from Naivasha - people know that Naivasha is usually a safe place, a place where people like peace.
But these people are coming and forcing people here to fight. So that's why they are going house-to-house making sure that if you are a Kikuyu, you have to come out and fight.
If you are not a Kikuyu, they just kill you immediately.
Not long ago they came into our estate and demanded the keys to the gate.
They used a petrol bomb to frighten us, telling us if we don't come out, they'll burn us.
Shooting, shooting, shooting
Luckily, I managed to hide under the bed.
Where they are targeting right now is Naivasha prison.
Groups of Kikuyu groups roam the streets of a neighborhood of Naivasha as fires burn
Homes belonging to Luos are being ransacked and set alight
The Kikuyus are going to the prison and they want to get the Luos and the Namdis who have gone there to seek refuge.
Gangs of Kikuyus are outside the prison and burning houses nearby but the police - there are many of them there - but it is like they are relaxed.
They are not doing anything, just shooting, shooting, shooting [up in the air] but not stopping these people from getting closer to the prison.
These Kikuyus that are doing all this - it is a kind of revenge.
In Naivasha it is revenge for what has been happening in other areas where Kikuyus have been killed.
